Liam Draxl vs Daniil Ostapenkov | Sioux Falls Round of 16

UMPIRY

Sioux FallsR16HardThu 29 Oct · 17:00

Liam Draxl(5)ATP #194 · CAN69%

VSClear favourite · Draxl L.

Daniil OstapenkovATP #546 · BLR31%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Draxl L.

69%31%

Clear edge for Draxl L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Draxl L.6.6/10

Marginal edgeBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Ostapenkov D.6.4/10

Marginal edgeBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form7 of last 10 on hardSupports Draxl L.

Recent run3-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Ostapenkov D.

CountryWon 66% in USA (112)Informative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 786

Hard ELO1 702

Last 107–3

Age24

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $718K2026 $267K

ELO1 661

Hard ELO1 641

Last 107–3

Age23

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $55K2026 $12K

Liam Draxl faces Daniil Ostapenkov in the Sioux Falls round of 16 on hard. Liam Draxl is the paper favourite — ranked #194 — but Daniil Ostapenkov rides a 3-match win streak. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Liam Draxl comes in with 1 days of rest and 123 games in 14d, vs Daniil Ostapenkov's 2 and 71.
Last match: Daniil Ostapenkov dropped just 2 games past Ozan Baris.
Last match: Liam Draxl won all two sets in tiebreaks against Tomasz Berkieta.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Draxl L.Ostapenkov D.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–37–3

Season win rate63% (40–24)61% (22–14)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17861661

Hard-court ELO17021641

Serve vs returnLast 56 vs 34 matches

1st-serve points won69%70%

Return points won41%39%

Aces / match4.96.0

ClutchLast 56 vs 34 matches

Break points saved57%52%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

17:00 local

SurfaceHard · medium-fast

Forecast13°C · Partly cloudy

Wind8 km/h

Humidity75%

Court pace medium-fast: rewards aggression.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Draxl L.Ostapenkov D.

1Days since last match2

1Matches · 7 days2

26Games · 7 days46

5Matches · 14 days3

123Games · 14 days71

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Liam Draxl vs Daniil Ostapenkov — Sioux Falls Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/draxl-vs-ostapenkov-sioux-falls-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).