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Caroline Dolehide vs Ella Mcdonald — W100 New Braunfels Round of 16

W100 New BraunfelsR16HardThu 29 Oct · 11:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Dolehide C.
73%27%

Clear edge for Dolehide C. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Dolehide C.6.5/10
Marginal edge
McDonald E.3.4/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface+371 Hard Elo edgeSupports Dolehide C.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1673Supports Dolehide C.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
CountryWon 71% in USA (34)Against the prediction · McDonald E.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 748
Hard ELO1 650
Last 106–4
Age28
EarningsCareer $4.8M2026 $140K
ELO1 648
Hard ELO1 629
Last 109–1
Age21
EarningsCareer $163K2026 $41K

Caroline Dolehide faces Ella Mcdonald in the W100 New Braunfels round of 16 on hard. Caroline Dolehide is the paper favourite — ranked #222, a roughly 370-point hard Elo advantage — but Ella Mcdonald arrives in form, winning 9 of their last 10 on hard to Caroline Dolehide's 6 of 10.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Dolehide C.McDonald E.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–49–1 (ahead)
Season win rate55% (16–13)72% (26–10) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1748 (ahead)1648
Hard-court ELO1650 (ahead)1629
Serve vs returnLast 22 vs 28 matches
1st-serve points won62%64% (ahead)
Return points won42%48% (ahead)
Aces / match1.52.4 (ahead)
ClutchLast 22 vs 28 matches
Break points saved58% (ahead)57%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast21°C · Overcast
Wind8 km/h
Humidity92%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Caroline Dolehide vs Ella Mcdonald — W100 New Braunfels Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/dolehide-vs-mcdonald-w100-new-braunfels-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).