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Tatjana Maria vs Martina Colmegna — Queretaro Open - Queretaro Round of 16

Queretaro Open - QueretaroR16ClayThu 29 Oct · 11:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Maria T.
75%25%

Clear edge for Maria T. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Maria T.7.2/10
Strong advantage
Colmegna M.4.9/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+320 Clay Elo edgeSupports Maria T.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1702Supports Maria T.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Maria T.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 831
Clay ELO1 586
Last 108–2
Age39
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $7.7M2026 $1.0M
ELO1 628
Clay ELO1 615
Last 106–4
Age29
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $168K2026 $22K

Tatjana Maria faces Martina Colmegna in the Queretaro Open - Queretaro round of 16 on clay. Tatjana Maria holds the paper edge — ranked #70, a roughly 320-point clay Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Maria T.Colmegna M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)6–4
Season win rate57% (39–29) (ahead)57% (26–20)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1831 (ahead)1628
Clay-court ELO15861615 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 65 vs 44 matches
1st-serve points won68% (ahead)60%
Return points won44%46% (ahead)
Aces / match4.1 (ahead)0.6
ClutchLast 65 vs 44 matches
Break points saved57% (ahead)53%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast21°C · Overcast
Wind5 km/h
Humidity55%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Maria T.Colmegna M.
1Days since last match1
1Matches · 7 days1
12 — fresherGames · 7 days24
1Matches · 14 days1
12 — fresherGames · 14 days24
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Tatjana Maria vs Martina Colmegna — Queretaro Open - Queretaro Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/colmegna-vs-maria-queretaro-open-queretaro-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).