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Teah Chavez vs Lea Ma — W75 Toronto Round of 16

W75 TorontoR16HardThu 29 Oct · 10:00
Teah ChavezWTA #802 · CAN19%
VSStrong favourite · Ma L.
Lea MaWTA #307 · USA81%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Ma L.
19%81%

Clear edge for Ma L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Chavez T.4.3/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Ma L.5.4/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on hardInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 540
Hard ELO1 537
Last 108–2
Age20
ELO1 635
Hard ELO1 605
Last 107–3
Age25

Teah Chavez faces Lea Ma in the W75 Toronto round of 16 on hard. Lea Ma holds the paper edge — ranked #307. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Last match: Lea Ma handed Rasheeda Mcadoo a first-set bagel in a 6–0 6–3 win.
  • Fatigue load: Lea Ma carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Teah Chavez 8 of 10, Lea Ma 7 of 10 on hard recently — Teah Chavez the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Chavez T.Ma L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)7–3
Season win rate73% (8–3) (ahead)54% (31–26)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15401635 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15371605 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 10 vs 50 matches
1st-serve points won58%67% (ahead)
Return points won49% (ahead)44%
Aces / match0.43.2 (ahead)
ClutchLast 10 vs 50 matches
Break points saved62% (ahead)61%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast11°C · Partly cloudy
Wind12 km/h
Humidity92%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Teah Chavez vs Lea Ma — W75 Toronto Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/chavez-vs-ma-w75-toronto-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).