Naoya Honda vs Liam Broady | Ningboo Round of 16

UMPIRY

NingbooR16HardThu 29 Oct · 07:00 UTCGRANDSTAND · Next on

Naoya HondaATP #637 · JPN46%

VSToss-up

Liam Broady(5)ATP #231 · GBR54%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

46%54%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Honda N.4.7/10

Heavy underdog

Broady L.6.7/10

Slight advantage

Why

Surface+341 Hard Elo edgeSupports Broady L.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1590Supports Broady L.

Recent run3-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Honda N.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Broady L.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Broady L.

ELO1 556

Hard ELO1 543

Last 106–4

Age20

EarningsCareer $42K2026 $11K

ELO1 721

Hard ELO1 672

Last 102–8

Age32

EarningsCareer $2.2M2026 $122K

Naoya Honda faces Liam Broady in the Ningboo round of 16 on hard. Liam Broady is the paper favourite — ranked #231, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 340-point hard Elo advantage — but Naoya Honda arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 10 on hard to Liam Broady's 2 of 10.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Naoya Honda 114 games in 14 days, Liam Broady 84.
Last match: Naoya Honda dropped the opening set before beating Filip Peliwo 5–7 6–3 7–6.
Last match: Liam Broady dropped the opening set before beating Sergey Fomin 5–7 7–6 6–2.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Broady L. leads 1–0

Broady L.March 2026Yokkaichi CHHard6-1 6-1

Evidence

Honda N.Broady L.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–42–8

Season win rate54% (22–19)52% (25–23)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15561721

Hard-court ELO15431672

Serve vs returnLast 26 vs 45 matches

1st-serve points won75%69%

Return points won39%41%

Aces / match4.62.8

ClutchLast 26 vs 45 matches

Break points saved57%59%

When it starts

GRANDSTAND · Next on · Followed by

1This match: Honda N. v Broady L.This match

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Honda N.Broady L.

1Days since last match1

3Matches · 7 days2

83Games · 7 days53

4Matches · 14 days3

114Games · 14 days84

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Naoya Honda vs Liam Broady — Ningboo Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/broady-vs-honda-ningboo-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).