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Preston Stearns vs Alejandro Arcila — M25 Las Vegas Round of 16

M25 Las VegasR16HardThu 29 Oct · 09:00
Preston StearnsUSA63%
VSSlight edge · Stearns P.
Alejandro ArcilaCOL37%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Stearns P.
63%37%

Stearns P. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Stearns P.3.9/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Arcila A.5.7/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form3 of last 8 on hardInformative
CountryWon 49% in USA (37)Informative
Recent runLost last 2Both players
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 515
Hard ELO1 517
Last 108–2
Age22
Height183 cm
ELO1 476
Hard ELO1 486
Last 102–8
Age19
Height178 cm

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Stearns P.Arcila A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)2–8
Season win rate80% (8–2) (ahead)33% (2–4)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1515 (ahead)1476
Hard-court ELO1517 (ahead)1486
Serve vs returnLast 6 vs 4 matches
1st-serve points won77% (ahead)64%
Return points won39%39%
Aces / match6.5 (ahead)1.5
ClutchLast 6 vs 4 matches
Break points saved62% (ahead)55%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

09:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast18°C · Overcast
Wind2 km/h
Humidity35%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Preston Stearns vs Alejandro Arcila — M25 Las Vegas Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/arcila-vs-stearns-m25-las-vegas-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).