Natsuki Yamamoto vs Taiyo Yamanaka

UMPIRY

M15 Yanagawa CityR32HardWed 28 Oct · 11:00

Natsuki YamamotoJPN19%

VSStrong favourite · Yamanaka T.

Taiyo Yamanaka(4)ATP #831 · JPN81%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Yamanaka T.

19%81%

Clear edge for Yamanaka T. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Yamamoto N.4.9/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Yamanaka T.5.7/10

Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form5 of last 10 on hardInformative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 454

Hard ELO1 459

Last 106–4

Age21

ELO1 573

Hard ELO1 556

Last 105–5

Age25

Natsuki Yamamoto faces Taiyo Yamanaka in the M15 Yanagawa City round of 32 on hard. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Last match: Natsuki Yamamoto handed Kenta Kawada a first-set bagel in a 6–0 6–7 10–7 win.
Fatigue load: Natsuki Yamamoto carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Natsuki Yamamoto 6 of 10, Taiyo Yamanaka 5 of 10 on hard recently — Natsuki Yamamoto the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Yamamoto N.Yamanaka T.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–45–5

Season win rate62% (8–5)47% (14–16)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO14541573

Hard-court ELO14591556

Serve vs returnLast 6 vs 21 matches

1st-serve points won70%70%

Return points won32%38%

Aces / match4.24.3

ClutchLast 6 vs 21 matches

Break points saved47%55%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast19°C · Mainly clear

Wind17 km/h

Humidity53%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Natsuki Yamamoto vs Taiyo Yamanaka — M15 Yanagawa City Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-28/yamamoto-vs-yamanaka-m15-yanagawa-city-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 28 October 2026).