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Toshiki Karigyo vs Yua Taka — M15 Yanagawa City Round of 32

M15 Yanagawa CityR32HardWed 28 Oct · 11:00
Toshiki KarigyoJPN46%
VSToss-up
Yua TakaJPN54%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
46%54%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Karigyo T.6.1/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Taka Y.4.4/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
What we know
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 526
Hard ELO1 521
Last 107–3
Age24
ELO1 557
Hard ELO1 555
Last 107–3
Age23

Toshiki Karigyo faces Yua Taka in the M15 Yanagawa City round of 32 on hard. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Last match: Yua Taka dropped just 3 games past Tsz Fu Wong.
  • Fatigue load: Toshiki Karigyo carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 7 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Karigyo T.Taka Y.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–37–3
Season win rate86% (6–1) (ahead)63% (17–10)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15261557 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15211555 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 3 vs 12 matches
1st-serve points won61%63% (ahead)
Return points won39% (ahead)38%
Aces / match1.31.5 (ahead)
ClutchLast 3 vs 12 matches
Break points saved57% (ahead)56%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast19°C · Mainly clear
Wind17 km/h
Humidity53%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Toshiki Karigyo vs Yua Taka — M15 Yanagawa City Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-28/karigyo-vs-taka-m15-yanagawa-city-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 28 October 2026).