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Sora Fukuda vs Shu Muto — M15 Yanagawa City Round of 32

M15 Yanagawa CityR32HardWed 28 Oct · 11:00
Sora Fukuda(6)ATP #889 · JPN77%
VSClear favourite · Fukuda S.
Shu MutoJPN23%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Fukuda S.
77%23%

Clear edge for Fukuda S. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Fukuda S.4.9/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Muto S.6.1/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form3 of last 10 on hardInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 630
Hard ELO1 588
Last 104–6
Age29
ELO1 502
Hard ELO1 505
Last 105–5
Age20

Sora Fukuda faces Shu Muto in the M15 Yanagawa City round of 32 on hard. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Shu Muto carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Sora Fukuda 4 of 10, Shu Muto 5 of 10 on hard recently — Shu Muto the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Fukuda S.Muto S.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–65–5 (ahead)
Season win rate40% (6–9)54% (7–6) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1630 (ahead)1502
Hard-court ELO1588 (ahead)1505
Serve vs returnLast 7 vs 4 matches
1st-serve points won69% (ahead)55%
Return points won39%46% (ahead)
Aces / match3.7 (ahead)1.3
ClutchLast 7 vs 4 matches
Break points saved58% (ahead)53%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast19°C · Mainly clear
Wind17 km/h
Humidity53%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Sora Fukuda vs Shu Muto — M15 Yanagawa City Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-28/fukuda-vs-muto-m15-yanagawa-city-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 28 October 2026).