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Jumpei Yamasaki vs James Connel — M15 Yanagawa City Round of 32

M15 Yanagawa CityR32HardWed 28 Oct · 10:00
Jumpei YamasakiJPN68%
VSClear favourite · Yamasaki J.
James ConnelGBR32%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Yamasaki J.
68%32%

Clear edge for Yamasaki J. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Yamasaki J.5.4/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Connel J.6.1/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form4 of last 10 on hardInformative
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 608
Hard ELO1 592
Last 105–5
Age29
ELO1 561
Hard ELO1 558
Last 105–5
Age23

Jumpei Yamasaki faces James Connel in the M15 Yanagawa City round of 32 on hard. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Jumpei Yamasaki carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 5 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Yamasaki J.Connel J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–55–5
Season win rate38% (3–5)55% (6–5) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1608 (ahead)1561
Hard-court ELO1592 (ahead)1558
Serve vs returnLast 7 vs 11 matches
1st-serve points won62%68% (ahead)
Return points won38%41% (ahead)
Aces / match4.3 (ahead)2.1
ClutchLast 7 vs 11 matches
Break points saved62% (ahead)54%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast17°C · Clear
Wind9 km/h
Humidity58%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Jumpei Yamasaki vs James Connel — M15 Yanagawa City Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-28/connel-vs-yamasaki-m15-yanagawa-city-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 28 October 2026).