UMPIRY
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Rodrigo Alujas vs M. Alvarez — M15 Mazatlan Round of 32

M15 MazatlanR32HardWed 28 Oct · 16:00
Rodrigo Alujas(5)ATP #782 · MEX69%
VSClear favourite · Alujas R.
M. AlvarezUSA31%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Alujas R.
69%31%

Clear edge for Alujas R. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Alujas R.5.0/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Alvarez M.6.1/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form2 of last 8 on hardInformative
Recent runLost last 3Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 530
Hard ELO1 512
Last 104–6
Age24
ELO1 497
Hard ELO1 497
Last 101–2
Age26

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Alujas R.Alvarez M.
FormLast 10 vs 3 matches · 2026
Win–loss4–6 (ahead)1–2
Season win rate35% (8–15) (ahead)33% (1–2)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1530 (ahead)1497
Hard-court ELO1512 (ahead)1497

Draw

Odds

Conditions

16:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast30°C · Partly cloudy
Wind13 km/h
Humidity68%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Rodrigo Alujas vs M. Alvarez — M15 Mazatlan Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-28/alujas-vs-alvarez-m15-mazatlan-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 28 October 2026).