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Lilli Tagger vs Venus Williams — Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou Round of 32

Guangzhou Open - GuangzhouR32HardTue 27 Oct · 10:00
Lilli Tagger(4)WTA #57 · AUT89%
VSStrong favourite · Tagger L.
Venus WilliamsWTA #599 · USA11%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Tagger L.
89%11%

Clear edge for Tagger L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 9 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Tagger L.6.0/10
Even match
Williams V.4.2/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+71 Hard Elo edgeSupports Tagger L.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1684Supports Tagger L.
Recent runLost last 15Informative
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 792
Hard ELO1 702
Last 104–6
Age18
Height185 cm
EarningsCareer $829K2026 $757K
ELO1 642
Hard ELO1 574
Last 100–10
Age46
Height185 cm
EarningsCareer $43.4M2026 $485K

Lilli Tagger faces Venus Williams in the Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou round of 32 on hard. Lilli Tagger holds the paper edge — ranked #57, a roughly 70-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

  • Surface form: Lilli Tagger 3 of 8, Venus Williams 0 of 8 on hard recently — Lilli Tagger the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Lilli Tagger carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Tagger L. and Williams V. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Tagger L. went 0–1 (0%) against them, Williams V. 0–1 (0%).

0–10%Tagger L. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents0–10%Williams V. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
0–2Sets0–2
6–13Games6–12
0–1Tiebreaks0–0

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Tagger L.Williams V.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–6 (ahead)0–10
Season win rate59% (32–22) (ahead)0% (0–12)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1792 (ahead)1642
Hard-court ELO1702 (ahead)1574
Serve vs returnLast 53 vs 11 matches
1st-serve points won68% (ahead)64%
Return points won43% (ahead)38%
Aces / match4.4 (ahead)3.3
ClutchLast 53 vs 11 matches
Break points saved54% (ahead)52%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast28°C · Clear
Wind12 km/h
Humidity47%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Lilli Tagger vs Venus Williams — Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-27/tagger-vs-williams-guangzhou-open-guangzhou-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 27 October 2026).