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Matt Ponchet vs Stijn Pel — M25 Sheffield Round of 32

M25 SheffieldR32HardTue 27 Oct · 10:00
Matt PonchetATP #777 · FRA63%
VSSlight edge · Ponchet M.
Stijn PelNED37%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Ponchet M.
63%37%

Ponchet M. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Ponchet M.5.2/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Pel S.4.8/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Recent runLost last 4Informative
Surface switchCarpet → HardAgainst the prediction · Pel S.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 531
Hard ELO1 512
Last 103–7
Age22
ELO1 520
Hard ELO1 513
Last 104–6
Age24

Matt Ponchet faces Stijn Pel in the M25 Sheffield round of 32 on hard. Stijn Pel brings the better recent hard form (3 of 7).

Key context

  • Surface form: Matt Ponchet 2 of 7, Stijn Pel 3 of 7 on hard recently — Stijn Pel the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Matt Ponchet carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Ponchet M.Pel S.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–74–6 (ahead)
Season win rate29% (4–10)40% (2–3) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1531 (ahead)1520
Hard-court ELO15121513 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 11 vs 2 matches
1st-serve points won69% (ahead)68%
Return points won34%34%
Aces / match3.86.0 (ahead)
ClutchLast 11 vs 2 matches
Break points saved60% (ahead)50%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast12°C · Clear
Wind26 km/h
Humidity62%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Matt Ponchet vs Stijn Pel — M25 Sheffield Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-27/pel-vs-ponchet-m25-sheffield-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 27 October 2026).