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Margaux Maquet vs Matilde Jorge — W75 Poitiers Round of 32

W75 PoitiersR32HardTue 27 Oct · 11:30
Margaux MaquetWTA #507 · BEL35%
VSSlight edge · Jorge M.
Matilde Jorge(7)WTA #242 · POR65%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Jorge M.
35%65%

Jorge M. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Maquet M.4.9/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Jorge M.5.9/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on hardInformative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 608
Hard ELO1 528
Last 104–6
Age25
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $23K2026 $15K
ELO1 658
Hard ELO1 610
Last 105–5
Age22
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $239K2026 $91K

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Maquet M.Jorge M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–65–5 (ahead)
Season win rate69% (41–18) (ahead)53% (28–25)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO16081658 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15281610 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 54 vs 50 matches
1st-serve points won65% (ahead)62%
Return points won48% (ahead)45%
Aces / match2.2 (ahead)1.5
ClutchLast 54 vs 50 matches
Break points saved57%57%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast16°C · Overcast
Wind16 km/h
Humidity85%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Margaux Maquet vs Matilde Jorge — W75 Poitiers Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-27/jorge-vs-maquet-w75-poitiers-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 27 October 2026).