Giovanni Oradini vs Matteo Fondriest

UMPIRY

M15 Selva GardenaR32HardTue 27 Oct · 16:00

Giovanni Oradini(4)ATP #673 · ITA77%

VSClear favourite · Oradini G.

Matteo FondriestITA23%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Oradini G.

77%23%

Clear edge for Oradini G. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Oradini G.5.2/10

Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Fondriest M.5.5/10

Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form3 of last 6 on hardAgainst the prediction · Fondriest M.

Surface switchClay → HardAgainst the prediction · Fondriest M.

Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 648

Hard ELO1 576

Last 106–4

Age29

PlaysLeft

ELO1 537

Hard ELO1 532

Last 107–3

Age22

PlaysRight

Giovanni Oradini faces Matteo Fondriest in the M15 Selva Gardena round of 32 on hard. Giovanni Oradini holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0.

Key context

Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Matteo Fondriest rising, Giovanni Oradini cooling.
Head-to-head: Giovanni Oradini leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at M25 Trento 1 2023.
Fatigue load: Giovanni Oradini carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Oradini G. leads 1–0

Oradini G.March 2023M25 Trento 1Carpet6-1 6-3

Evidence

Oradini G.Fondriest M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–47–3

Season win rate60% (24–16)45% (10–12)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16481537

Hard-court ELO15761532

Serve vs returnLast 34 vs 17 matches

1st-serve points won69%67%

Return points won41%37%

Aces / match4.93.7

ClutchLast 34 vs 17 matches

Break points saved65%52%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

16:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast13°C · Clear

Wind7 km/h

Humidity57%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Giovanni Oradini vs Matteo Fondriest — M15 Selva Gardena Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-27/fondriest-vs-oradini-m15-selva-gardena-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 27 October 2026).