UMPIRY
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Alan Sau Franco vs Jesse Flores — M15 Mazatlan Round of 32

M15 MazatlanR32HardTue 27 Oct · 12:00
Alan Sau FrancoMEX34%
VSSlight edge · Flores J.
Jesse Flores(6)ATP #810 · CRC66%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Flores J.
34%66%

Flores J. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Sau Franco A.4.5/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Flores J.5.5/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form3 of last 10 on hardSupports Flores J.
Recent runLost last 6Informative
Surface switchClay → HardAgainst the prediction · Sau Franco A.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 492
Hard ELO1 501
Last 104–6
Age25
ELO1 515
Hard ELO1 518
Last 103–7
Age31

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Sau Franco A.Flores J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–6 (ahead)3–7
Season win rate33% (4–8)36% (4–7) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO14921515 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15011518 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 7 vs 11 matches
1st-serve points won59%75% (ahead)
Return points won37% (ahead)33%
Aces / match2.45.5 (ahead)
ClutchLast 7 vs 11 matches
Break points saved56% (ahead)54%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

12:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast30°C · Mainly clear
Wind14 km/h
Humidity66%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alan Sau Franco vs Jesse Flores — M15 Mazatlan Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-27/flores-vs-franco-m15-mazatlan-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 27 October 2026).