Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Ferro F.
71%29%
Clear edge for Ferro F. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.
Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Ferro F.6.6/10
Marginal edgeBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Johnson S.5.4/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form8 of last 10 on clayInformative
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Surface switchHard → ClaySupports Ferro F.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 757
Clay ELO1 693
Last 107–3
Age29
ELO1 570
Clay ELO1 508
Last 104–6
Age22
Common opponents
0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.
Head-to-head
They have not met before.
Evidence
Ferro F.Johnson S.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate69% (42–19) (ahead)56% (18–14)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1757 (ahead)1570
Clay-court ELO1693 (ahead)1508
Serve vs returnLast 55 vs 27 matches
1st-serve points won59%61% (ahead)
Return points won49%49%
Aces / match0.91.3 (ahead)
ClutchLast 55 vs 27 matches
Break points saved58% (ahead)56%
Draw
Odds
Conditions
10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast18°C · Clear
Wind8 km/h
Humidity68%
Cite this
Umpiry, "Fiona Ferro vs S. Johnson — Queretaro Open - Queretaro Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-27/ferro-vs-johnson-queretaro-open-queretaro-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 27 October 2026).