UMPIRY
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Marie Mattel vs Clara Burel — W75 Poitiers Round of 32

W75 PoitiersR32HardTue 27 Oct · 16:30
Marie MattelFRA9%
VSStrong favourite · Burel C.
Clara Burel(2)WTA #151 · FRA91%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Burel C.
9%91%

Clear edge for Burel C. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 11 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Mattel M.4.8/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Burel C.6.4/10
Marginal edgeBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form4 of last 10 on hardInformative
Recent run8-match win streakInformative
Surface switchClay → HardAgainst the prediction · Mattel M.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 548
Hard ELO1 528
Last 106–4
Age26
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $20K2026 $8K
ELO1 814
Hard ELO1 739
Last 108–2
Age25
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.8M2026 $204K

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Mattel M.Burel C.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–48–2 (ahead)
Season win rate62% (13–8)65% (20–11) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15481814 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15281739 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 20 vs 29 matches
1st-serve points won66% (ahead)60%
Return points won47%50% (ahead)
Aces / match1.5 (ahead)1.4
ClutchLast 20 vs 29 matches
Break points saved57%59% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

16:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast18°C · Overcast
Wind15 km/h
Humidity79%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Marie Mattel vs Clara Burel — W75 Poitiers Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-27/burel-vs-mattel-w75-poitiers-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 27 October 2026).