Remy Bertola vs Denis Shapovalov | Basel Round of 64

UMPIRY

BaselR64HardTue 27 Oct · 12:00

Remy BertolaATP #219 · SUI28%

VSClear favourite · Shapovalov D.

Denis ShapovalovATP #47 · CAN72%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Shapovalov D.

28%72%

Clear edge for Shapovalov D. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Bertola R.5.4/10

Clear underdog

Shapovalov D.7.2/10

Strong advantage

Why

Surface+247 Hard Elo edgeSupports Shapovalov D.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1771Supports Shapovalov D.

Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Bertola R.

This eventReached the quarters here last yearSupports Shapovalov D.

Long matches3 three-setters in 14 daysInformative

ELO1 770

Hard ELO1 659

Last 104–6

Age28

Height175 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $419K2026 $184K

ELO1 953

Hard ELO1 880

Last 107–3

Age27

Height185 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $15.5M2026 $995K

Remy Bertola faces Denis Shapovalov in the Basel round of 64 on hard. Denis Shapovalov holds the paper edge — ranked #47, defending last year's quarter-final, a roughly 250-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Under pressure: In the tight moments, Denis Shapovalov has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 83 vs 30).
Last match: Remy Bertola edged Mika Brunold in two tight sets (7–6 6–4).
Fatigue load: Remy Bertola carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Bertola R.Shapovalov D.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–67–3

Season win rate52% (31–29)53% (21–19)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17701953

Hard-court ELO16591880

Serve vs returnLast 59 vs 35 matches

1st-serve points won71%73%

Return points won37%36%

Aces / match5.28.2

ClutchLast 59 vs 35 matches

Break points saved60%58%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

12:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast17°C · Overcast

Wind7 km/h

Humidity53%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Remy Bertola vs Denis Shapovalov — Basel Round of 64", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-27/bertola-vs-shapovalov-basel-r64?utm_source=cite (as of 27 October 2026).