Rafael De Alba vs Joshua Peck | M15 Mazatlan Round of 32

UMPIRY

M15 MazatlanR32HardTue 27 Oct · 10:30

Rafael De Alba(8)MEX31%

VSClear favourite · Peck J.

Joshua PeckCAN69%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Peck J.

31%69%

Clear edge for Peck J. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

De Alba R.4.5/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Peck J.4.9/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form2 of last 10 on hardSupports Peck J.

Recent runLost last 7Informative

Surface switchClay → HardSupports Peck J.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 460

Hard ELO1 471

Last 102–8

Age24

ELO1 501

Hard ELO1 498

Last 105–5

Age27

Rafael De Alba faces Joshua Peck in the M15 Mazatlan round of 32 on hard. Joshua Peck brings the better recent hard form (3 of 6).

Key context

Surface form: Rafael De Alba 1 of 6, Joshua Peck 3 of 6 on hard recently — Joshua Peck the sharper of late.
Fatigue load: Joshua Peck carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

De Alba R.Peck J.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss2–85–5

Season win rate17% (3–15)57% (13–10)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO14601501

Hard-court ELO14711498

Serve vs returnLast 12 matches each

1st-serve points won62%71%

Return points won32%41%

Aces / match2.33.0

ClutchLast 12 matches each

Break points saved57%51%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:30 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast29°C · Drizzle

Wind4 km/h

Humidity72%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Rafael De Alba vs Joshua Peck — M15 Mazatlan Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-27/alba-vs-peck-m15-mazatlan-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 27 October 2026).