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Elias Ymer vs Yi Zhou — Ningboo Round of 32

NingbooR32HardMon 26 Oct · 03:00 UTC
Elias Ymer(4)ATP #228 · SWE38%
VSSlight edge · Zhou Y.
Yi ZhouATP #280 · CHN62%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Zhou Y.
38%62%

Zhou Y. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Ymer E.5.7/10
Slight disadvantage
Zhou Y.5.9/10
Even match
Why
Surface+83 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Ymer E.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1548Against the prediction · Ymer E.
Recent runLost last 4Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Zhou Y.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 735
Hard ELO1 612
Last 103–7
Age30
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.5M2026 $242K
ELO1 719
Hard ELO1 642
Last 105–5
Age21
Height193 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $465K2026 $126K

Elias Ymer faces Yi Zhou in the Ningboo round of 32 on hard. Elias Ymer is the paper favourite — ranked #228, a roughly 80-point hard Elo advantage — but Yi Zhou arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 10 on hard to Elias Ymer's 3 of 10.

Key context

  • Freshness: Elias Ymer comes in with 5 days of rest and 47 games in 14d, vs Yi Zhou's 0 and 104.
  • Surface form: Elias Ymer 3 of 10, Yi Zhou 5 of 10 on hard recently — Yi Zhou the sharper of late.

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Ymer E. and Zhou Y. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Ymer E. went 0–1 (0%) against them, Zhou Y. 1–0 (100%).

0–10%Ymer E. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–0100%Zhou Y. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
1–2Sets2–1
17–18Games16–16
0–1Tiebreaks1–0
0–1Deciding sets1–0

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Ymer E.Zhou Y.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–75–5 (ahead)
Season win rate47% (23–26)52% (26–24) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1735 (ahead)1719
Hard-court ELO16121642 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 44 vs 47 matches
1st-serve points won71%72% (ahead)
Return points won35%36% (ahead)
Aces / match5.76.7 (ahead)
ClutchLast 44 vs 47 matches
Break points saved61%66% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Ymer E.Zhou Y.
5 — fresherDays since last match0
1 — fresherMatches · 7 days4
32 — fresherGames · 7 days78
2 — fresherMatches · 14 days5
47 — fresherGames · 14 days104
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Elias Ymer vs Yi Zhou — Ningboo Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-26/ymer-vs-zhou-ningboo-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 26 October 2026).