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Valeriya Strakhova vs Gabriela Vilar — Queretaro Open - Queretaro Qualifying Round of 16

Queretaro Open - QueretaroQ16QualifyingClayMon 26 Oct · 11:30
Valeriya StrakhovaWTA #499 · UKR95%
VSStrong favourite · Strakhova V.
Gabriela VilarUSA5%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Strakhova V.
95%5%

Clear edge for Strakhova V. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 20 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Strakhova V.4.3/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Vilar G.6.1/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form1 of last 10 on clayInformative
Recent runLost last 12Informative
Surface switchHard → ClayAgainst the prediction · Vilar G.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 543
Clay ELO1 534
Last 104–6
Age31
ELO1 378
Clay ELO1 391
Last 100–10
Age21

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Strakhova V.Vilar G.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–6 (ahead)0–10
Season win rate46% (19–22) (ahead)0% (0–7)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1543 (ahead)1378
Clay-court ELO1534 (ahead)1391
Serve vs returnLast 41 vs 3 matches
1st-serve points won59% (ahead)38%
Return points won47% (ahead)31%
Aces / match1.01.0
ClutchLast 41 vs 3 matches
Break points saved54% (ahead)23%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:30 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast17°C · Overcast
Wind13 km/h
Humidity69%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Valeriya Strakhova vs Gabriela Vilar — Queretaro Open - Queretaro Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-26/strakhova-vs-vilar-queretaro-open-queretaro-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 26 October 2026).