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Laura Samson vs Alice Tubello — Curitiba Open - Curitiba Round of 32

Curitiba Open - CuritibaR32ClayMon 26 Oct · 11:00
Laura Samson(4)WTA #116 · CZE52%
VSToss-up
Alice TubelloWTA #219 · FRA48%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
52%48%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Samson L.5.9/10
Even match
Tubello A.4.8/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+205 Clay Elo edgeSupports Samson L.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1690Supports Samson L.
Surface switchHard → ClayAgainst the prediction · Tubello A.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 711
Clay ELO1 686
Last 106–4
Age18
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $384K2026 $195K
ELO1 707
Clay ELO1 707
Last 107–3
Age25
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $363K2026 $190K

Laura Samson faces Alice Tubello in the Curitiba Open - Curitiba round of 32 on clay. Laura Samson holds the paper edge — ranked #116, a roughly 200-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
  • Surface form: Both 3 of 5 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Samson L. and Tubello A. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Samson L. went 1–0 (100%) against them, Tubello A. 0–1 (0%).

1–0100%Samson L. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents0–10%Tubello A. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
2–0Sets0–2
12–6Games2–12

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Samson L.Tubello A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–47–3 (ahead)
Season win rate62% (29–18) (ahead)61% (37–24)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1711 (ahead)1707
Clay-court ELO16861707 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 45 vs 59 matches
1st-serve points won64% (ahead)60%
Return points won46%48% (ahead)
Aces / match2.7 (ahead)0.9
ClutchLast 45 vs 59 matches
Break points saved55% (ahead)52%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast17°C · Clear
Wind8 km/h
Humidity57%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Laura Samson vs Alice Tubello — Curitiba Open - Curitiba Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-26/samson-vs-tubello-curitiba-open-curitiba-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 26 October 2026).