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Jakub Mensik vs Lukas Neumayer — Vienna Round of 32

ViennaR32HardMon 26 Oct · 17:30
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Mensik J.
84%16%

Clear edge for Mensik J. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Mensik J.7.6/10
Dominant favourite
Neumayer L.4.5/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+412 Hard Elo edgeSupports Mensik J.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1931Supports Mensik J.
Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Neumayer L.
Travel7h west, 13d agoInformative
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Mensik J.
ELO2 067
Hard ELO1 922
Last 105–5
Age21
Height193 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $7.4M2026 $2.5M
ELO1 762
Hard ELO1 549
Last 107–3
Age24
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $623K2026 $180K

Jakub Mensik faces Lukas Neumayer in the Vienna round of 32 on hard. Jakub Mensik holds the paper edge — ranked #16, a roughly 410-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

3 shared · last 12 months

Mensik J. and Neumayer L. faced 3 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Mensik J. went 2–1 (67%) against them, Neumayer L. 2–1 (67%). Only 2 of the comparisons are context-comparable — too few for a conclusion.

2–167%Mensik J. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents2–167%Neumayer L. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
6–2Sets5–2
45–32Games37–29
0–1Tiebreaks1–0
0–0Deciding sets0–1

Only 3 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Mensik J.Neumayer L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–57–3 (ahead)
Season win rate63% (36–21) (ahead)61% (41–26)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2067 (ahead)1762
Hard-court ELO1922 (ahead)1549
Serve vs returnLast 55 vs 64 matches
1st-serve points won78% (ahead)66%
Return points won36%40% (ahead)
Aces / match11.2 (ahead)2.5
ClutchLast 55 vs 64 matches
Break points saved62% (ahead)59%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

17:30 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast12°C · Overcast
Wind5 km/h
Humidity54%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Mensik J.Neumayer L.
12 — fresherDays since last match1
0 — fresherMatches · 7 days1
0 — fresherGames · 7 days19
2 — fresherMatches · 14 days3
49 — fresherGames · 14 days76
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Jakub Mensik vs Lukas Neumayer — Vienna Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-26/mensik-vs-neumayer-vienna-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 26 October 2026).