UMPIRY
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Sho Shimabukuro vs Jan Kumstat — Seoul Round of 32

SeoulR32HardMon 26 Oct · 10:30
Sho Shimabukuro(7)ATP #109 · JPN48%
VSToss-up
Jan KumstatATP #192 · CZE52%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
48%52%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Shimabukuro S.5.3/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Kumstat J.6.0/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form4 of last 8 on hardSupports Kumstat J.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Surface switchClay → HardAgainst the prediction · Shimabukuro S.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 776
Hard ELO1 661
Last 102–8
Age29
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.2M2026 $427K
ELO1 673
Hard ELO1 526
Last 107–3
Age19
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $76K2026 $50K

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Shimabukuro S.Kumstat J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss2–87–3 (ahead)
Season win rate50% (29–29)76% (31–10) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1776 (ahead)1673
Hard-court ELO1661 (ahead)1526
Serve vs returnLast 52 vs 38 matches
1st-serve points won72%76% (ahead)
Return points won36%39% (ahead)
Aces / match6.07.6 (ahead)
ClutchLast 52 vs 38 matches
Break points saved60%66% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:30 local
SurfaceHard · medium-slow
Forecast17°C · Clear
Wind7 km/h
Humidity66%

Court pace medium-slow: favours grinders.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Shimabukuro S.Kumstat J.
3Days since last match7 — fresher
2Matches · 7 days1 — fresher
48Games · 7 days29 — fresher
2 — fresherMatches · 14 days3
48 — fresherGames · 14 days74
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Sho Shimabukuro vs Jan Kumstat — Seoul Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-26/kumstat-vs-shimabukuro-seoul-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 26 October 2026).