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Tristan Schoolkate vs Masamichi Imamura — Ningboo Round of 32

NingbooR32HardMon 26 Oct · 03:00 UTC
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Schoolkate T.
83%17%

Clear edge for Schoolkate T. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Schoolkate T.6.8/10
Slight advantage
Imamura M.4.6/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+217 Hard Elo edgeSupports Schoolkate T.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1549Supports Schoolkate T.
Recent run4-match win streakSupports Schoolkate T.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Imamura M.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Imamura M.
ELO1 807
Hard ELO1 707
Last 105–5
Age25
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.6M2026 $322K
ELO1 613
Hard ELO1 589
Last 102–8
Age27
Height178 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $134K2026 $23K

Tristan Schoolkate faces Masamichi Imamura in the Ningboo round of 32 on hard. Tristan Schoolkate is the paper favourite — ranked #169, a roughly 220-point hard Elo advantage — but Masamichi Imamura has won their only previous meeting.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Imamura M. leads 1–0
01

Evidence

Schoolkate T.Imamura M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–5 (ahead)2–8
Season win rate55% (36–29) (ahead)52% (26–24)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1807 (ahead)1613
Hard-court ELO1707 (ahead)1589
Serve vs returnLast 60 vs 46 matches
1st-serve points won75% (ahead)66%
Return points won35%40% (ahead)
Aces / match8.6 (ahead)2.0
ClutchLast 60 vs 46 matches
Break points saved61% (ahead)52%

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Schoolkate T.Imamura M.
1Days since last match6 — fresher
2Matches · 7 days1 — fresher
50Games · 7 days15 — fresher
3Matches · 14 days1 — fresher
72Games · 14 days15 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Tristan Schoolkate vs Masamichi Imamura — Ningboo Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-26/imamura-vs-schoolkate-ningboo-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 26 October 2026).