Han Shi vs Alevtina Ibragimova | Preview, H2H & Win Probability

UMPIRY

Guangzhou Open - GuangzhouR32HardMon 26 Oct · 14:00

Han ShiWTA #177 · CHN67%

VSClear favourite · Shi H.

Alevtina IbragimovaWTA #175 · RUS33%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Shi H.

67%33%

Clear edge for Shi H. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Shi H.5.7/10

Slight disadvantage

Ibragimova A.5.8/10

Slight disadvantage

Why

Surface+197 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Ibragimova A.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1508Against the prediction · Ibragimova A.

Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Ibragimova A.

Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 751

Hard ELO1 712

Last 107–3

Age21

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $264K2026 $75K

ELO1 707

Hard ELO1 608

Last 106–4

Age21

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $187K2026 $100K

Han Shi faces Alevtina Ibragimova in the Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou round of 32 on hard. Alevtina Ibragimova holds the paper edge — ranked #175, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Han Shi comes in with 6 days of rest and 114 games in 14d, vs Alevtina Ibragimova's 0 and 45.
Last match: Alevtina Ibragimova dropped just 6 games past Polina Iatcenko.
Head-to-head: Alevtina Ibragimova leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at Huzhou 125 2026.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Ibragimova A. leads 1–0

Ibragimova A.April 2026Huzhou 125Clay6-3 2-6 6-2

Evidence

Shi H.Ibragimova A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–36–4

Season win rate67% (52–26)58% (28–20)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17511707

Hard-court ELO17121608

Serve vs returnLast 74 vs 45 matches

1st-serve points won63%57%

Return points won48%49%

Aces / match2.21.6

ClutchLast 74 vs 45 matches

Break points saved55%55%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

14:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast32°C · Mainly clear

Wind6 km/h

Humidity37%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Shi H.Ibragimova A.

6Days since last match0

2Matches · 7 days2

36Games · 7 days45

6Matches · 14 days2

114Games · 14 days45

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Han Shi vs Alevtina Ibragimova — Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-26/ibragimova-vs-shi-guangzhou-open-guangzhou-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 26 October 2026).