UMPIRY
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August Holmgren vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend — Seoul Round of 32

SeoulR32HardMon 26 Oct · 10:30
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Hara Friend J.
40%60%

Hara Friend J. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Holmgren A.5.5/10
Slight disadvantage
Hara Friend J.6.2/10
Even match
Why
Surface+36 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Holmgren A.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1566Against the prediction · Holmgren A.
Recent runLost last 3Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Holmgren A.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 737
Hard ELO1 612
Last 102–8
Age28
PlaysRight
ELO1 713
Hard ELO1 672
Last 107–3
Age22
PlaysRight

August Holmgren faces Jay Dylan Hara Friend in the Seoul round of 32 on hard. August Holmgren is the paper favourite — ranked #258, a roughly 40-point hard Elo advantage — but Jay Dylan Hara Friend arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on hard to August Holmgren's 2 of 10.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Holmgren A.Hara Friend J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss2–87–3 (ahead)
Season win rate48% (29–32)66% (33–17) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1737 (ahead)1713
Hard-court ELO16121672 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 59 vs 43 matches
1st-serve points won74% (ahead)72%
Return points won35%38% (ahead)
Aces / match7.2 (ahead)5.3
ClutchLast 59 vs 43 matches
Break points saved63%64% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:30 local
SurfaceHard · medium-slow
Forecast17°C · Clear
Wind7 km/h
Humidity67%

Court pace medium-slow: favours grinders.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Holmgren A.Hara Friend J.
11 — fresherDays since last match1
0 — fresherMatches · 7 days3
0 — fresherGames · 7 days89
1 — fresherMatches · 14 days7
30 — fresherGames · 14 days190
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "August Holmgren vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend — Seoul Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-26/friend-vs-holmgren-seoul-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 26 October 2026).