UMPIRY
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Stefan Kozlov vs Murphy Cassone — Sioux Falls Round of 32

Sioux FallsR32HardMon 26 Oct · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Cassone M.
32%68%

Clear edge for Cassone M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Kozlov S.5.2/10
Clear underdog
Cassone M.6.3/10
Marginal edge
Why
Surface+16 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Kozlov S.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Kozlov S.
CountryWon 57% in USA (186)Informative
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1429Both players
ELO1 695
Hard ELO1 613
Last 103–7
Age28
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.1M2026 $50K
ELO1 714
Hard ELO1 657
Last 106–4
Age24
Height188 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $355K2026 $112K

Stefan Kozlov faces Murphy Cassone in the Sioux Falls round of 32 on hard. Stefan Kozlov is the paper favourite — leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 20-point hard Elo advantage — but Murphy Cassone arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 10 on hard to Stefan Kozlov's 3 of 10.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Kozlov S. leads 1–0
10

Evidence

Kozlov S.Cassone M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–76–4 (ahead)
Season win rate48% (22–24)49% (21–22) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO16951714 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO16131657 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 46 vs 39 matches
1st-serve points won67%73% (ahead)
Return points won41% (ahead)36%
Aces / match2.55.9 (ahead)
ClutchLast 46 vs 39 matches
Break points saved55%61% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast6°C · Overcast
Wind19 km/h
Humidity92%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Stefan Kozlov vs Murphy Cassone — Sioux Falls Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-26/cassone-vs-kozlov-sioux-falls-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 26 October 2026).