Lucas Poullain vs Matisse Bobichon | Brest Qualifying Round of 16

UMPIRY

BrestQ16QualifyingHardMon 26 Oct · 14:00

Lucas PoullainATP #318 · FRA51%

VSToss-up

Matisse BobichonATP #515 · FRA49%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

51%49%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Poullain L.4.9/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Bobichon M.5.2/10

Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form6 of last 10 on hardAgainst the prediction · Bobichon M.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Bobichon M.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Poullain L.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 715

Hard ELO1 667

Last 105–5

Age30

EarningsCareer $224K2026 $30K

ELO1 636

Hard ELO1 620

Last 106–4

Age24

EarningsCareer $22K2026 $7K

Lucas Poullain faces Matisse Bobichon in the Brest qualifying round of 16 on hard. They have met once, Matisse Bobichon leading 1–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Lucas Poullain comes in with 1 days of rest and 38 games in 14d, vs Matisse Bobichon's 1 and 74.
Last match: Matisse Bobichon dropped the opening set before beating Yannik Kelm 3–6 6–3 7–5.
Last match: Lucas Poullain dropped just 4 games past Timeo Trufelli.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Bobichon M. leads 1–0

Bobichon M.January 2025M15 Monastir 2Hard6-4 7-5

Evidence

Poullain L.Bobichon M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–56–4

Season win rate58% (25–18)62% (21–13)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17151636

Hard-court ELO16671620

Serve vs returnLast 41 vs 29 matches

1st-serve points won66%72%

Return points won41%38%

Aces / match1.95.7

ClutchLast 41 vs 29 matches

Break points saved58%67%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

14:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast16°C · Overcast

Wind25 km/h

Humidity91%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Poullain L.Bobichon M.

1Days since last match1

1Matches · 7 days1

16Games · 7 days30

2Matches · 14 days3

38Games · 14 days74

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Lucas Poullain vs Matisse Bobichon — Brest Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-26/bobichon-vs-poullain-brest-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 26 October 2026).