UMPIRY
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Rigele Te vs Mert Alkaya — Ningboo Round of 32

NingbooR32HardMon 26 Oct · 03:00 UTC
Rigele TeATP #734 · CHN33%
VSClear favourite · Alkaya M.
Mert AlkayaATP #311 · TUR67%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Alkaya M.
33%67%

Clear edge for Alkaya M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Te R.5.0/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Alkaya M.5.8/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form4 of last 10 on hardSupports Alkaya M.
Recent runLost last 2Both players
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysBoth players
ELO1 613
Hard ELO1 569
Last 105–5
Age29
EarningsCareer $243K2026 $8K
ELO1 670
Hard ELO1 639
Last 106–4
Age26
EarningsCareer $87K2026 $39K

Rigele Te faces Mert Alkaya in the Ningboo round of 32 on hard. Mert Alkaya holds the paper edge — ranked #311. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
  • Surface form: Rigele Te 5 of 10, Mert Alkaya 6 of 10 on hard recently — Mert Alkaya the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Te R.Alkaya M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–56–4 (ahead)
Season win rate41% (9–13)52% (22–20) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO16131670 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15691639 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 19 vs 40 matches
1st-serve points won72% (ahead)70%
Return points won33%38% (ahead)
Aces / match7.2 (ahead)5.4
ClutchLast 19 vs 40 matches
Break points saved64%64%

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Te R.Alkaya M.
4Days since last match5 — fresher
1Matches · 7 days1
33Games · 7 days26 — fresher
1Matches · 14 days1
33Games · 14 days26 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Rigele Te vs Mert Alkaya — Ningboo Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-26/alkaya-vs-te-ningboo-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 26 October 2026).