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Miguel Tobon vs Federico Zeballos — Guayaquil Qualifying Round of 32

GuayaquilQ32QualifyingClaySun 25 Oct · 15:00
Miguel TobonATP #466 · COL86%
VSStrong favourite · Tobon M.
Federico ZeballosBOL14%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Tobon M.
86%14%

Clear edge for Tobon M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 7 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Tobon M.5.9/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Zeballos F.5.7/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form4 of last 10 on claySupports Tobon M.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Zeballos F.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 595
Clay ELO1 552
Last 105–5
Age20
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
ELO1 521
Clay ELO1 523
Last 104–6
Age38
Height185 cm
PlaysRight

Miguel Tobon faces Federico Zeballos in the Guayaquil qualifying round of 32 on clay. Miguel Tobon brings the better recent clay form (4 of 7).

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Tobon M.Zeballos F.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–5 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate54% (26–22) (ahead)36% (5–9)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1595 (ahead)1521
Clay-court ELO1552 (ahead)1523
Serve vs returnLast 47 vs 12 matches
1st-serve points won70% (ahead)66%
Return points won39% (ahead)32%
Aces / match4.5 (ahead)2.5
ClutchLast 47 vs 12 matches
Break points saved59%59%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

15:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast32°C · Drizzle
Wind7 km/h
Humidity60%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Tobon M.Zeballos F.
2Days since last match13 — fresher
3Matches · 7 days0 — fresher
84Games · 7 days0 — fresher
3Matches · 14 days2 — fresher
84Games · 14 days53 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Miguel Tobon vs Federico Zeballos — Guayaquil Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-25/tobon-vs-zeballos-guayaquil-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 25 October 2026).