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Ryan Nijboer vs Mariano Kestelboim — Guayaquil Qualifying Round of 32

GuayaquilQ32QualifyingClaySun 25 Oct · 10:00
Ryan NijboerATP #383 · NED81%
VSStrong favourite · Nijboer R.
Mariano KestelboimARG19%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Nijboer R.
81%19%

Clear edge for Nijboer R. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Nijboer R.6.1/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Kestelboim M.5.2/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on claySupports Nijboer R.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 708
Clay ELO1 685
Last 107–3
Age27
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
ELO1 643
Clay ELO1 628
Last 102–8
Age30
Height185 cm
PlaysRight

Ryan Nijboer faces Mariano Kestelboim in the Guayaquil qualifying round of 32 on clay. Ryan Nijboer brings the better recent clay form (7 of 10).

Key context

  • Surface form: Ryan Nijboer 7 of 10, Mariano Kestelboim 2 of 10 on clay recently — Ryan Nijboer the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Ryan Nijboer carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Nijboer R.Kestelboim M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)2–8
Season win rate69% (33–15) (ahead)27% (3–8)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1708 (ahead)1643
Clay-court ELO1685 (ahead)1628
Serve vs returnLast 47 vs 9 matches
1st-serve points won71% (ahead)62%
Return points won42% (ahead)37%
Aces / match4.0 (ahead)2.6
ClutchLast 47 vs 9 matches
Break points saved62% (ahead)56%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast30°C · Overcast
Wind7 km/h
Humidity71%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Ryan Nijboer vs Mariano Kestelboim — Guayaquil Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-25/kestelboim-vs-nijboer-guayaquil-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 25 October 2026).