Hiroki Moriya vs Taisei Ichikawa | Ningboo Qualifying Round of 32

UMPIRY

NingbooQ32QualifyingHardSun 25 Oct · 07:00 UTC

Hiroki MoriyaATP #480 · JPN41%

VSSlight edge · Ichikawa T.

Taisei IchikawaATP #746 · JPN59%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Ichikawa T.

41%59%

Ichikawa T. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Moriya H.5.8/10

Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Ichikawa T.4.7/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form5 of last 10 on hardSupports Ichikawa T.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Moriya H.

Recent runLost last 2Both players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 622

Hard ELO1 581

Last 104–6

Age36

Height168 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.1M2026 $21K

ELO1 584

Hard ELO1 564

Last 106–4

Age25

Height180 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $91K2026 $8K

Hiroki Moriya faces Taisei Ichikawa in the Ningboo qualifying round of 32 on hard. Hiroki Moriya is the paper favourite — ranked #480, leading the head-to-head 1–0 — but Taisei Ichikawa arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 10 on hard to Hiroki Moriya's 4 of 10.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Hiroki Moriya 17 games in 14 days, Taisei Ichikawa 0.
Head-to-head: Hiroki Moriya leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M25 Takasaki 1 2024.
Surface form: Hiroki Moriya 4 of 10, Taisei Ichikawa 6 of 10 on hard recently — Taisei Ichikawa the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Moriya H. leads 1–0

Moriya H.September 2024M25 Takasaki 1Hard6-3 6-3

Evidence

Moriya H.Ichikawa T.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–66–4

Season win rate45% (24–29)55% (17–14)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16221584

Hard-court ELO15811564

Serve vs returnLast 48 vs 22 matches

1st-serve points won68%68%

Return points won39%42%

Aces / match2.43.9

ClutchLast 48 vs 22 matches

Break points saved57%63%

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Moriya H.Ichikawa T.

6Days since last match20

1Matches · 7 days0

17Games · 7 days0

1Matches · 14 days0

17Games · 14 days0

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Hiroki Moriya vs Taisei Ichikawa — Ningboo Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-25/ichikawa-vs-moriya-ningboo-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 25 October 2026).