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Ryuki Matsuda vs Naoya Honda — Ningboo Qualifying Round of 32

NingbooQ32QualifyingHardSun 25 Oct · 05:00 UTC
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
51%49%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Matsuda R.5.7/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Honda N.5.8/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on hardAgainst the prediction · Honda N.
Recent runLost last 4Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 591
Hard ELO1 576
Last 106–4
Age26
EarningsCareer $111K2026 $10K
ELO1 541
Hard ELO1 528
Last 104–6
Age20
EarningsCareer $42K2026 $11K

Ryuki Matsuda faces Naoya Honda in the Ningboo qualifying round of 32 on hard. Naoya Honda is the paper favourite — ranked #597 — but Ryuki Matsuda arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 10 on hard to Naoya Honda's 4 of 10.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Matsuda R.Honda N.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate49% (21–22)50% (19–19) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1591 (ahead)1541
Hard-court ELO1576 (ahead)1528
Serve vs returnLast 31 vs 23 matches
1st-serve points won66%75% (ahead)
Return points won39%39%
Aces / match2.44.5 (ahead)
ClutchLast 31 vs 23 matches
Break points saved55%57% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Matsuda R.Honda N.
19 — fresherDays since last match6
0 — fresherMatches · 7 days1
0 — fresherGames · 7 days31
0 — fresherMatches · 14 days1
0 — fresherGames · 14 days31
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Ryuki Matsuda vs Naoya Honda — Ningboo Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-25/honda-vs-matsuda-ningboo-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 25 October 2026).