Karl Poling vs Maxwell Exsted — Sioux Falls Qualifying Round of 32
Live Win Probability
i—Poling K.
—Exsted M.
Karl PolingMaxwell Exsted
Serve flowPoling K. unbroken · Exsted M. unbroken.
- Hold to love/15
- Hold to 30
- Hold to 40 / deuce
- Broken
- Result unknown
Poling K.2/2Exsted M.1/1
Set 1
Match momentum
Last 27 pointsPoling K.Exsted M.Swinging toPoling K.9
7Last 12 points5
11Last 3 games6
0/5Break points0/0
30 pointsNow
Break of serve
Key moments
Latest first- HOLD 0Set 1 · Game 1Poling K. held to love
Pre-match context
Poling K. came in with the higher hard rating (1548 vs 1492); Exsted M. with the better recent record (5–5 vs 2–8).
Pre-match prediction
Set before the first ball · not updated in playPre-match win probability
50%50%
Umpiry Score
5.1/10/105.7
Matchup strength 0–10 · not a probabilityCommon opponents
0 shared · last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.
Head-to-head
They have not met before.
Season statistics
Form · Rating · Serve vs return · ClutchShowHide
Poling K.Exsted M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss2–85–5 (ahead)
Season win rate49% (23–24)53% (10–9) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1579 (ahead)1540
Hard-court ELO1548 (ahead)1492
Serve vs returnLast 44 vs 11 matches
1st-serve points won66% (ahead)60%
Return points won39%44% (ahead)
Aces / match2.0 (ahead)0.4
ClutchLast 44 vs 11 matches
Break points saved58% (ahead)46%
Draw
Cite this
Umpiry, "Karl Poling vs Maxwell Exsted — Sioux Falls Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-25/exsted-vs-poling-sioux-falls-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 25 October 2026).