Spencer Johnson vs Jonah Braswell

UMPIRY

Sioux FallsQ32QualifyingHardSun 25 Oct · 13:00

Spencer JohnsonATP #432 · USA69%

VSClear favourite · Johnson S.

Jonah BraswellUSA31%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Johnson S.

69%31%

Clear edge for Johnson S. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Johnson S.6.0/10

Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Braswell J.5.7/10

Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form5 of last 10 on hardInformative

Recent runLost last 2Informative

CountryWon 72% in USA (67)Supports Johnson S.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

ELO1 624

Hard ELO1 603

Last 104–6

Age23

ELO1 524

Hard ELO1 517

Last 107–3

Age22

Spencer Johnson faces Jonah Braswell in the Sioux Falls qualifying round of 32 on hard. Jonah Braswell brings the better recent hard form (7 of 10).

Key context

Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Jonah Braswell rising, Spencer Johnson cooling.
Fatigue load: Spencer Johnson carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Spencer Johnson 4 of 10, Jonah Braswell 7 of 10 on hard recently — Jonah Braswell the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Johnson S.Braswell J.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–67–3

Season win rate74% (25–9)53% (9–8)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16241524

Hard-court ELO16031517

Serve vs returnLast 25 vs 9 matches

1st-serve points won74%69%

Return points won38%41%

Aces / match7.52.7

ClutchLast 25 vs 9 matches

Break points saved62%69%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast7°C · Overcast

Wind13 km/h

Humidity84%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Spencer Johnson vs Jonah Braswell — Sioux Falls Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-25/braswell-vs-johnson-sioux-falls-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 25 October 2026).