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Justin Boulais vs Sebastian Dominko — Sioux Falls Qualifying Round of 32

Sioux FallsQ32QualifyingHardSun 25 Oct · 17:30
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Dominko S.
31%69%

Clear edge for Dominko S. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Boulais J.5.2/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Dominko S.5.8/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form3 of last 6 on hardSupports Dominko S.
CountryWon 69% in USA (26)Supports Dominko S.
Recent runLost last 3Both players
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 608
Hard ELO1 585
Last 103–7
Age25
Height183 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $165K2026 $50K
ELO1 645
Hard ELO1 569
Last 107–3
Age23
Height203 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $24K2026 $4K

Justin Boulais faces Sebastian Dominko in the Sioux Falls qualifying round of 32 on hard. Justin Boulais is the paper favourite — ranked #415 — but Sebastian Dominko arrives in form, winning 2 of their last 4 on hard to Justin Boulais's 1 of 4.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Boulais J.Dominko S.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–77–3 (ahead)
Season win rate51% (22–21)74% (23–8) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO16081645 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO1585 (ahead)1569
Serve vs returnLast 42 vs 24 matches
1st-serve points won69%78% (ahead)
Return points won40% (ahead)39%
Aces / match4.08.5 (ahead)
ClutchLast 42 vs 24 matches
Break points saved62%65% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

17:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast7°C · Overcast
Wind15 km/h
Humidity82%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Justin Boulais vs Sebastian Dominko — Sioux Falls Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-25/boulais-vs-dominko-sioux-falls-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 25 October 2026).