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Martin Borisiouk vs Yaroslav Demin — Ningboo Qualifying Round of 32

NingbooQ32QualifyingHardSun 25 Oct · 09:00 UTC
Martin BorisioukATP #867 · BLR68%
VSClear favourite · Borisiouk M.
Yaroslav DeminATP #614 · RUS32%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Borisiouk M.
68%32%

Clear edge for Borisiouk M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Borisiouk M.6.3/10
Marginal edgeBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Demin Y.5.8/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form7 of last 10 on hardSupports Borisiouk M.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 639
Hard ELO1 618
Last 107–3
Age26
Height191 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $29K2026 $3K
ELO1 563
Hard ELO1 540
Last 105–5
Age21
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $48K2026 $10K

Martin Borisiouk faces Yaroslav Demin in the Ningboo qualifying round of 32 on hard. Yaroslav Demin is the paper favourite — ranked #614 — but Martin Borisiouk arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 8 on hard to Yaroslav Demin's 4 of 8.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Borisiouk M.Demin Y.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate71% (17–7) (ahead)50% (10–10)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1639 (ahead)1563
Hard-court ELO1618 (ahead)1540
Serve vs returnLast 15 vs 19 matches
1st-serve points won80% (ahead)70%
Return points won39%40% (ahead)
Aces / match7.8 (ahead)4.2
ClutchLast 15 vs 19 matches
Break points saved62% (ahead)61%

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Borisiouk M.Demin Y.
18 — fresherDays since last match4
0 — fresherMatches · 7 days3
0 — fresherGames · 7 days69
0 — fresherMatches · 14 days3
0 — fresherGames · 14 days69
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Martin Borisiouk vs Yaroslav Demin — Ningboo Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-25/borisiouk-vs-demin-ningboo-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 25 October 2026).