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Erik Arutiunian vs Colin Sinclair — Sioux Falls Qualifying Round of 32

Sioux FallsQ32QualifyingHardSun 25 Oct · 13:00
Erik ArutiunianATP #588 · BLR72%
VSClear favourite · Arutiunian E.
Colin SinclairATP #481 · NMI28%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Arutiunian E.
72%28%

Clear edge for Arutiunian E. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Arutiunian E.6.5/10
Marginal edgeBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Sinclair C.5.8/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form7 of last 10 on hardSupports Arutiunian E.
CountryWon 67% in USA (27)Supports Arutiunian E.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 676
Hard ELO1 650
Last 106–4
Age22
Height191 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $62K2026 $4K
ELO1 601
Hard ELO1 574
Last 104–6
Age31
Height188 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $173K2026 $19K

Erik Arutiunian faces Colin Sinclair in the Sioux Falls qualifying round of 32 on hard. Colin Sinclair is the paper favourite — ranked #481 — but Erik Arutiunian arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 10 on hard to Colin Sinclair's 4 of 10.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Erik Arutiunian carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Erik Arutiunian 6 of 10, Colin Sinclair 4 of 10 on hard recently — Erik Arutiunian the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Arutiunian E.Sinclair C.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate67% (16–8) (ahead)57% (17–13)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1676 (ahead)1601
Hard-court ELO1650 (ahead)1574
Serve vs returnLast 21 vs 29 matches
1st-serve points won70%74% (ahead)
Return points won36% (ahead)33%
Aces / match6.09.3 (ahead)
ClutchLast 21 vs 29 matches
Break points saved63%68% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast7°C · Overcast
Wind13 km/h
Humidity84%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Erik Arutiunian vs Colin Sinclair — Sioux Falls Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-25/arutiunian-vs-sinclair-sioux-falls-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 25 October 2026).