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Dayana Yastremska vs Xiaodi You — Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou Qualifying Round of 32

Guangzhou Open - GuangzhouQ32QualifyingHardSat 24 Oct · 17:30
Dayana YastremskaWTA #103 · UKR70%
VSClear favourite · Yastremska D.
Xiaodi YouWTA #212 · CHN30%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Yastremska D.
70%30%

Clear edge for Yastremska D. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Yastremska D.6.5/10
Marginal edge
You X.4.6/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+248 Hard Elo edgeSupports Yastremska D.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1792Supports Yastremska D.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 824
Hard ELO1 690
Last 103–7
Age26
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $7.0M2026 $929K
ELO1 636
Hard ELO1 617
Last 103–7
Age30
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $715K2026 $111K

Dayana Yastremska faces Xiaodi You in the Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou qualifying round of 32 on hard. Dayana Yastremska holds the paper edge — ranked #103, a roughly 250-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Dayana Yastremska has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 38 vs 16).
  • Fatigue load: Dayana Yastremska carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 3 of 9 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Yastremska D.You X.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–73–7
Season win rate45% (19–23)49% (21–22) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1824 (ahead)1636
Hard-court ELO1690 (ahead)1617
Serve vs returnLast 42 vs 41 matches
1st-serve points won60%61% (ahead)
Return points won43%47% (ahead)
Aces / match2.2 (ahead)2.0
ClutchLast 42 vs 41 matches
Break points saved51% (ahead)50%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

17:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast30°C · Overcast
Wind12 km/h
Humidity42%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Dayana Yastremska vs Xiaodi You — Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-24/yastremska-vs-you-guangzhou-open-guangzhou-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 24 October 2026).