UMPIRY
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Miguel Tobon vs Nicolas Mejia — Cali Round of 16

CaliR16ClayFri 23 Oct · 17:30Court 1
Miguel TobonATP #466 · COL26%
VSClear favourite · Mejia N.
Nicolas Mejia(2)ATP #115 · COL74%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Mejia N.
26%74%

Clear edge for Mejia N. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Tobon M.5.4/10
Clear underdog
Mejia N.6.9/10
Slight advantage
Why
Surface+177 Clay Elo edgeSupports Mejia N.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1477Supports Mejia N.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Mejia N.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 592
Clay ELO1 549
Last 106–4
Age20
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
ELO1 809
Clay ELO1 674
Last 105–5
Age26
Height183 cm
PlaysRight

Miguel Tobon faces Nicolas Mejia in the Cali round of 16 on clay. Nicolas Mejia holds the paper edge — ranked #115, a roughly 180-point clay Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Tobon M.Mejia N.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate54% (25–21)60% (36–24) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15921809 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO15491674 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 45 vs 54 matches
1st-serve points won69%70% (ahead)
Return points won39% (ahead)38%
Aces / match4.55.0 (ahead)
ClutchLast 45 vs 54 matches
Break points saved59%63% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Court 1 · 17:30 local
SurfaceClay · fast
Forecast24°C · Clear
Wind4 km/h
Humidity72%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Tobon M.Mejia N.
2Days since last match2
1Matches · 7 days1
25Games · 7 days23 — fresher
3Matches · 14 days2 — fresher
76Games · 14 days43 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Miguel Tobon vs Nicolas Mejia — Cali Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-23/mejia-vs-tobon-cali-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 23 October 2026).