Luca Staeheli vs Maxim Shin | M15 Shenzhen Round of 16

UMPIRY

M15 ShenzhenR16HardThu 22 Oct · 10:00

Luca Staeheli(1)ATP #425 · SUI74%

VSClear favourite · Staeheli L.

Maxim ShinUZB26%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Staeheli L.

74%26%

Clear edge for Staeheli L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Staeheli L.5.1/10

Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Shin M.3.9/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form5 of last 10 on hardInformative

Recent runLost last 5Informative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 655

Hard ELO1 569

Last 106–4

Age26

Height180 cm

PlaysRight

ELO1 558

Hard ELO1 532

Last 106–4

Age23

Height191 cm

PlaysRight

Luca Staeheli faces Maxim Shin in the M15 Shenzhen round of 16 on hard. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Form trend: Maxim Shin's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Luca Staeheli's has cooled.
Last match: Maxim Shin advanced when Wenze Li retired.
Last match: Luca Staeheli handed Haolong He a second-set bagel in a 6–2 6–0 win.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Staeheli L.Shin M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–46–4

Season win rate69% (24–11)44% (8–10)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16551558

Hard-court ELO15691532

Serve vs returnLast 32 vs 13 matches

1st-serve points won70%68%

Return points won42%39%

Aces / match3.52.1

ClutchLast 32 vs 13 matches

Break points saved64%47%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast27°C · Clear

Wind10 km/h

Humidity55%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Luca Staeheli vs Maxim Shin — M15 Shenzhen Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/shin-vs-staeheli-m15-shenzhen-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).