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Bautista De La Pena vs Pedro Sakamoto — M15 Maceio Round of 16

M15 MaceioR16ClayThu 22 Oct · 13:30
Bautista De La PenaCHI14%
VSStrong favourite · Sakamoto P.
Pedro Sakamoto(2)ATP #518 · BRA86%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Sakamoto P.
14%86%

Clear edge for Sakamoto P. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 7 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
De La Pena B.4.7/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Sakamoto P.4.9/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on clayInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 488
Clay ELO1 493
Last 107–3
Age17
ELO1 679
Clay ELO1 657
Last 108–2
Age33

Bautista De La Pena faces Pedro Sakamoto in the M15 Maceio round of 16 on clay. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Pedro Sakamoto carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 7 of 9 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

De La Pena B.Sakamoto P.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–38–2 (ahead)
Season win rate62% (8–5) (ahead)57% (27–20)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO14881679 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO14931657 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 7 vs 44 matches
1st-serve points won60%69% (ahead)
Return points won41% (ahead)40%
Aces / match1.93.0 (ahead)
ClutchLast 7 vs 44 matches
Break points saved48%63% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:30 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast28°C · Clear
Wind14 km/h
Humidity68%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Bautista De La Pena vs Pedro Sakamoto — M15 Maceio Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/pena-vs-sakamoto-m15-maceio-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).