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Pawit Sornlaksup vs Ryuki Matsuda — M25 Mumbai Round of 16

M25 MumbaiR16HardThu 22 Oct · 10:30
Pawit SornlaksupATP #743 · THA58%
VSSlight edge · Sornlaksup P.
Ryuki MatsudaATP #655 · JPN42%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Sornlaksup P.
58%42%

Sornlaksup P. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Sornlaksup P.5.4/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Matsuda R.4.6/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form4 of last 9 on hardSupports Sornlaksup P.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 604
Hard ELO1 595
Last 105–5
Age27
EarningsCareer $32K2026 $9K
ELO1 586
Hard ELO1 571
Last 106–4
Age26
EarningsCareer $111K2026 $10K

Pawit Sornlaksup faces Ryuki Matsuda in the M25 Mumbai round of 16 on hard. Ryuki Matsuda holds the paper edge — ranked #655. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Pawit Sornlaksup rising, Ryuki Matsuda cooling.
  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
  • Surface form: Pawit Sornlaksup 5 of 10, Ryuki Matsuda 6 of 10 on hard recently — Ryuki Matsuda the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Sornlaksup P.Matsuda R.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–56–4 (ahead)
Season win rate53% (10–9) (ahead)49% (20–21)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1604 (ahead)1586
Hard-court ELO1595 (ahead)1571
Serve vs returnLast 13 vs 29 matches
1st-serve points won60%67% (ahead)
Return points won44% (ahead)39%
Aces / match3.0 (ahead)2.4
ClutchLast 13 vs 29 matches
Break points saved50%55% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast35°C · Clear
Wind12 km/h
Humidity30%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Pawit Sornlaksup vs Ryuki Matsuda — M25 Mumbai Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/matsuda-vs-sornlaksup-m25-mumbai-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).