Timofei Derepasko vs Linang Xiao | M15 Shenzhen Round of 16

UMPIRY

M15 ShenzhenR16HardThu 22 Oct · 10:00

Timofei Derepasko(3)ATP #609 · RUS62%

VSSlight edge · Derepasko T.

Linang XiaoCHN38%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Derepasko T.

62%38%

Derepasko T. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Derepasko T.5.3/10

Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Xiao L.5.0/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form7 of last 10 on hardSupports Derepasko T.

Recent runLost last 4Informative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 561

Hard ELO1 551

Last 105–5

Age19

ELO1 541

Hard ELO1 518

Last 102–8

Age26

Timofei Derepasko faces Linang Xiao in the M15 Shenzhen round of 16 on hard. Timofei Derepasko brings the better recent hard form (5 of 9).

Key context

Freshness: Timofei Derepasko comes in with 12 days of rest and 39 games in 14d, vs Linang Xiao's 16 and 0.
Last match: Linang Xiao handed W. Kong a second-set bagel in a 6–3 6–0 win.
Last match: Timofei Derepasko edged Kristjan Tamm in two tight sets (7–5 7–6).

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Derepasko T.Xiao L.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–52–8

Season win rate55% (18–15)17% (2–10)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15611541

Hard-court ELO15511518

Serve vs returnLast 22 vs 12 matches

1st-serve points won70%70%

Return points won40%37%

Aces / match4.44.5

ClutchLast 22 vs 12 matches

Break points saved56%57%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast27°C · Clear

Wind10 km/h

Humidity55%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Derepasko T.Xiao L.

12Days since last match16

0Matches · 7 days0

0Games · 7 days0

2Matches · 14 days0

39Games · 14 days0

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Timofei Derepasko vs Linang Xiao — M15 Shenzhen Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/derepasko-vs-xiao-m15-shenzhen-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).