UMPIRY
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Alec Deckers vs F. Roussel — M15 Ithaca Round of 16

M15 IthacaR16HardThu 22 Oct · 12:00
Alec Deckers(1)ATP #536 · NED83%
VSStrong favourite · Deckers A.
F. RousselCAN17%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Deckers A.
83%17%

Clear edge for Deckers A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Deckers A.5.8/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Roussel F.5.0/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form6 of last 10 on hardInformative
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 677
Hard ELO1 655
Last 107–3
Age26
ELO1 503
Hard ELO1 502
Last 105–5
Age18

Alec Deckers faces F. Roussel in the M15 Ithaca round of 16 on hard. Alec Deckers brings the better recent hard form (7 of 9).

Key context

  • Surface form: Alec Deckers 7 of 9, F. Roussel 5 of 9 on hard recently — Alec Deckers the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: F. Roussel carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Deckers A.Roussel F.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate60% (21–14) (ahead)55% (6–5)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1677 (ahead)1503
Hard-court ELO1655 (ahead)1502
Serve vs returnLast 28 vs 5 matches
1st-serve points won78% (ahead)65%
Return points won35%42% (ahead)
Aces / match11.7 (ahead)1.8
ClutchLast 28 vs 5 matches
Break points saved68% (ahead)54%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

12:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast10°C · Clear
Wind13 km/h
Humidity68%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alec Deckers vs F. Roussel — M15 Ithaca Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/deckers-vs-roussel-m15-ithaca-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).