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Allegra Korpanec Davies vs Lea Ma — W35 Bakersfield Round of 32

W35 BakersfieldR32HardThu 22 Oct · 19:00
Allegra Korpanec DaviesWTA #681 · GBR19%
VSStrong favourite · Ma L.
Lea Ma(2)WTA #321 · USA81%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Ma L.
19%81%

Clear edge for Ma L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Korpanec Davies A.5.7/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Ma L.5.5/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on hardInformative
CountryWon 62% in USA (131)Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 512
Hard ELO1 484
Last 103–7
Age19
EarningsCareer $15K2026 $10K
ELO1 632
Hard ELO1 603
Last 106–4
Age25
EarningsCareer $99K2026 $47K

Allegra Korpanec Davies faces Lea Ma in the W35 Bakersfield round of 32 on hard. Lea Ma holds the paper edge — ranked #321.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Lea Ma carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Allegra Korpanec Davies 2 of 5, Lea Ma 3 of 5 on hard recently — Lea Ma the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Korpanec Davies A.Ma L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–76–4 (ahead)
Season win rate47% (18–20)54% (29–25) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15121632 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO14841603 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 35 vs 47 matches
1st-serve points won61%67% (ahead)
Return points won43%44% (ahead)
Aces / match1.73.1 (ahead)
ClutchLast 35 vs 47 matches
Break points saved49%60% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

19:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast15°C · Rain
Wind5 km/h
Humidity91%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Allegra Korpanec Davies vs Lea Ma — W35 Bakersfield Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/davies-vs-ma-w35-bakersfield-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).