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Katarzyna Kawa vs Belinda Bencic — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Round of 16

Ningbo Open - NingboR16HardThu 22 Oct · 13:00
Katarzyna KawaWTA #128 · POL12%
VSStrong favourite · Bencic B.
Belinda Bencic(5)WTA #14 · SUI88%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Bencic B.
12%88%

Clear edge for Bencic B. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 8 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Kawa K.4.8/10
Heavy underdog
Bencic B.7.1/10
Strong advantage
Why
Surface+463 Hard Elo edgeSupports Bencic B.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1989Supports Bencic B.
Recent run3-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Kawa K.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Bencic B.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 740
Hard ELO1 543
Last 105–5
Age33
Height178 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.5M2026 $217K
ELO2 034
Hard ELO1 890
Last 105–5
Age29
Height175 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $17.4M2026 $2.6M

Katarzyna Kawa faces Belinda Bencic in the Ningbo Open - Ningbo round of 16 on hard. Belinda Bencic is the paper favourite — ranked #14, a roughly 460-point hard Elo advantage — but Katarzyna Kawa arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 8 on hard to Belinda Bencic's 3 of 8.

Key context

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Kawa K. and Bencic B. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Kawa K. went 0–1 (0%) against them, Bencic B. 0–2 (0%).

0–10%Kawa K. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents0–20%Bencic B. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
0–2Sets2–4
3–12Games20–32
0–0Deciding sets0–2

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Kawa K.Bencic B.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–55–5
Season win rate56% (28–22)67% (31–15) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO17402034 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15431890 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 49 vs 41 matches
1st-serve points won61%67% (ahead)
Return points won48% (ahead)46%
Aces / match1.81.9 (ahead)
ClutchLast 49 vs 41 matches
Break points saved53%57% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast23°C · Overcast
Wind21 km/h
Humidity48%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Kawa K.Bencic B.
2Days since last match6 — fresher
2Matches · 7 days1 — fresher
23Games · 7 days18 — fresher
2Matches · 14 days1 — fresher
23Games · 14 days18 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Katarzyna Kawa vs Belinda Bencic — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/bencic-vs-kawa-ningbo-open-ningbo-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).