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Rodrigo Fernandes vs Mikael Arseneault — M15 Ithaca Round of 16

M15 IthacaR16HardThu 22 Oct · 10:00Live
Rodrigo FernandesPOR
Mikael ArseneaultCAN
SetsGamesGame1
622
1
461
4015
Odds

Fernandes R. a break up in the 3rdFernandes R. broken once · Arseneault M. broken twice

Rodrigo Fernandes faces Mikael Arseneault in the M15 Ithaca round of 16 on hard. Rodrigo Fernandes brings the better recent hard form (6 of 10).

Key context

Serve flowFernandes R. broken 4 times · Arseneault M. broken 4 times.
  • Hold to love/15
  • Hold to 30
  • Hold to 40 / deuce
  • Broken
  • Result unknown
Fernandes R.
6/10Arseneault M.
7/11
Set 1Set 2Set 3

Match momentum

Last 30 pointsFernandes R.Arseneault M.
EvenFernandes…Arseneault…
Swinging toFernandes R.37
7Last 12 points5
8Last 3 games5
4/4Break points4/5
30 pointsNow

Break of serve

Live statistics · Serve vs return

Fernandes R.Arseneault M.
Serve
  • 2Aces1
  • 0Double faults1
  • 70% · 31/441st serve %76% · 35/46
  • 61%1st serve points won72%
  • 69% · 9/132nd serve points won45% · 5/11
  • 64% · 28/44Service points won65% · 30/46
  • 60% · 6/10Service games held64% · 7/11
Return
  • 35% · 16/46Return points won36% · 16/44
  • 29% · 10/351st return points won39% · 12/31
  • 55% · 6/112nd return points won31% · 4/13
  • 100%Break points won67%
  • 4Breaks of serve4
Points
  • 44Total points won46
  • 11Most points in a row9
  • 4Most games in a row3

Key moments

Latest first
  1. BREAKSet 3 · Game 3Fernandes R. broke serve
  2. BREAKSet 3 · Game 2Arseneault M. broke serve
  3. BREAKSet 3 · Game 1Fernandes R. broke serve
  4. SETSet 2 · Game 8Arseneault M. took the set
  5. BREAKSet 2 · Game 8Arseneault M. broke serve
  6. HOLD 0Set 2 · Game 7Arseneault M. held to love
  7. BREAKSet 2 · Game 6Arseneault M. broke serve
  8. HOLD 0Set 2 · Game 1Arseneault M. held to love
  9. SETSet 1 · Game 10Fernandes R. took the set
  10. BREAKSet 1 · Game 7Fernandes R. broke serve
  11. HOLD 0Set 1 · Game 6Fernandes R. held to love
  12. BREAKSet 1 · Game 5Fernandes R. broke serve
  13. BREAKSet 1 · Game 4Arseneault M. broke serve
  14. HOLD 0Set 1 · Game 2Fernandes R. held to love
Pre-match context

Arseneault M. came in with the higher hard rating (1532 vs 1499); Fernandes R. with the better recent record (6–4 vs 4–6).

Pre-match prediction

Set before the first ball · not updated in play
Pre-match win probability
32%68%
Umpiry Score
4.1/10/105.6
Matchup strength 0–10 · not a probability
ELO1 507
Hard ELO1 499
Last 106–4
Age19
ELO1 536
Hard ELO1 532
Last 104–6
Age19

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Season statistics

Form · Rating · Serve vs return · ClutchShowHide
Fernandes R.Arseneault M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate57% (8–6) (ahead)50% (6–6)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15071536 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO14991532 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 13 vs 11 matches
1st-serve points won73% (ahead)66%
Return points won39%41% (ahead)
Aces / match3.5 (ahead)2.5
ClutchLast 13 vs 11 matches
Break points saved53%56% (ahead)

Draw

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Weather5°C · Overcast
Wind5 km/h
Humidity80%

Match info

  • Started10:00 local

Cite this

Umpiry, "Rodrigo Fernandes vs Mikael Arseneault — M15 Ithaca Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/arseneault-vs-fernandes-m15-ithaca-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).